Ethereum Classic price eyes 30% breakout as Grayscale premium hits all-time low

• Ethereum Classic price shows signs that a 30% volatile run-up is on its way.
• The Grayscale premium for ETC is recovering after hitting an all-time low of -58.6%.
• Grayscale Investment has offloaded roughly 240,000 ETC since March 2021.

Ethereum Classic price has been consolidating for roughly two months and is not starting to show signs of moving higher. However, this move comes as Grayscale Investment premium on the ETHC product hits -52.78%. 

Plunging premium in a bull market

Etheruem Classic premium has dipped below the -50% line and set up an all-time low at -54.91% on May 11. This down move was followed by a dip to -58.62% on November 6. The premium is currently hovering around -52.78%, suggesting a massive bearish outlook from the Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust (ETHC) holders.

With roughly $670 million in assets under management (AUM) under the ETHC trust, the market price for ETC stands at $22.60, far lower than the holdings per share price at $47.86.

Ethereum Classic Grayscale premium chart

The cryptocurrency market is in a bull run, but ETC seems to be holding steady as it moves sideways. While the negative premium is half the picture, Grayscale’s constant offloading of ETC since March puts the whole story in perspective.

Roughly 240,000 ETC was shed by the Grayscale team, bringing their total holdings down from 12.45 million to 12.21 million.

Ethereum Classic Grayscale holdings chart

Regardless of the bearish outlook, the technicals of Ethereum Classic hint at a short-term bullish outlook.

Ethereum Classic price ready for breakout

Ethereum Classic price saw a tight consolidation since September 8 with one or two moments where it tried rallying, but the momentum was snubbed. Currently, ETC is grappling with the upper band of the Bollinger Band, trying to breakout. A decisive daily close above $59.45 will confirm a breakout, suggesting a volatile move is on its way.

This move will likely trigger a 30% ascent into the resistance level at $77.33, where Ethereum Classic price set up a double top on September 6. The buy-stop liquidity resting above these highs is what market makers will target. Therefore, investors need to keep an eye out for the current breakout to reach.

ETC/USDT 1-day chart

While this move might sound profitable, the Ethereum Classic price needs to stay above the $50.49 support floor. Failing to do so will indicate weakness among buyers and suggests that ETC could descend. A daily close below this level will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis mentioned above.