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BTC on the brink of another collapse


  • Bitcoin price still bleeds as the turnaround on Wednesday ended nowhere.
  • Ethereum price undergoes another rejection against an important historical pivotal level.
  • XRP price could see its bounce off the lows being cut short.

UPDATE: Bitcoin price predictions on the main cryptocurrency dipping below key $20,000 support keep coming, but BTC bulls have been able to just prevent that from happening for now. After closing Thursday at around $20,370, Bitcoin price is behaving in a more stable way on Friday, the quietest trading day of a hectic week. This weekend’s price action will be decisive for the fate of the biggest crypto, as it is currently trading below a highly followed technical indicator: the 200-week moving average. As Akash Girimath, crypto analyst at FXStreet, reports, “Bitcoin has only tagged this indicator five times and only closed below on six weekly candlesticks, recovering quickly after each one.” A close below the 200-week MA and the failure to quickly recover above it would be a very bearish signal. Actually, according to Girimath, “a breakdown below $19,804, 2017’s all-time high, could catalyze another 50% drop.”

Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are set to trade sideways-to-lower after the US Central Bank confirmed its more hawkish rate path is going forward in order to bring inflation down. As it has become quite clear these past few weeks that cryptocurrencies are intermingled with the global financial system, there are only two factors now that are key to determining when the crypto-winter is likely to come to an end. The US job report on every first Friday of the month is one of these factors, in particular the expendable household income component, which has been getting smaller over the past few months, pointing to less available cash for investing in cryptocurrencies.

The second factor is monthly inflation from the US, which can be found on the FXStreet agenda page. Once US inflation drops and Expendable Household Income increases, it provides a useful signal  that a solid, more extended-term uptrend will start in cryptocurrencies. Neither sooner, nor later, will the end of the crypto-winter be announced.

Bitcoin price set to slip below $20,000

Bitcoin (BTC) price is done for and will not be trading back above $30,000 anytime soon. The dust is settling after the Fed meeting on Wednesday evening, and it does not paint a rosy picture for cryptocurrencies overall. Expect to see more pressure as investors try to pull out more funds to survive the winter.

BTC price will slip further and test the $20,000 marker soon in what almost seems inevitable. As this downtrend is firmly entrenched it will take more than a significant round number to spark a turnaround. Instead, the historic pivotal level at $19,036.23 looks a more likely candidate, or $16,020.44 with just below there the monthly S2 support as double support to catch the falling knife.

BTC/USD  daily chart

BTC/USD  daily chart

Alternatively, should equities start to make fresh gains, a continuous spillover effect could also trigger cautious buying in cryptocurrencies. In such a scenario Bitcoin price would refrain from making new lows and avoid testing $20,000. A swing up towards $24,000 could even be in the making, testing the monthly S1 once price action can break above it and rallying back towards $28,695.13, and in the process, erasing the lengthy losses from this week.


Ethereum price dangling and taunting gravity before dropping below $1,000

Ethereum (ETH) price is probably the most nervous cryptocurrency of the main three. With price action rushing back towards $1,243.83 again this morning, traders must have gotten burned already a couple of times as bears are still pushing back on those levels. As the dust settles after Wednesday’s events, expect to see a drop back as gravity starts to kick in.

ETH price dropping below $1,000 today, is more than possible, especially if more dollar strength kicks in and makes new lows. That would be the death of ETH price action and see bulls getting smashed against the monthly S2 at $920. Around $90 below, there is the historic pivotal level of $830.93 marked up, which will be vital in preventing further losses as once below there, the next significant level where price action could stall is $200.

ETH/USD daily chart

ETH/USD daily chart

Due to the FED coming out very hawkish on Wednesday evening, markets may welcome the intervention and see it as a good thing that might avoid a recession further down the line. Traders could then start front-running this idea and build a stake in risk assets. That would  indicate a much-needed cash flow influx on the buy-side of ETH price and see price action jump back to $1,400 after  back above $1,243.89.


XRP price could touch $0.37 in a touch-and-drop scenario

Ripple (XRP) price sees markets licking their wounds this morning, but nevertheless during the ASIA PAC session the market made some small gains. Still, given the impact of persistent dollar strength, do not expect to see any massive swings in price action to the upside for XRP. A positive headline would be welcome, but do not expect one soon.

XRP price could recover to $0.37 and briefly touch the pivotal level there, but following that, it is likely to decline again towards $0.30 with the floor being built there and the monthly S1 support as a failsafe system. As inflation peaks or worries about a recession do not fade soon, expect this route to continue going into the summer. A break below the S1 could mean another 50% drop to $0.17.

XRP/USD daily chart

XRP/USD daily chart

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, it is more than possible that some breakthrough headlines hit the wires. With all the back-channelling in talks between Ukraine and Russia, expect to see a massive relief rally unfolding once that breaks. That would be translated in XRP in a pop above $0.37 and rally towards $0.42 in the run-up.


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